TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,664
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,664 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65b5…a403backed Yes22c24,589$5,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,507.042630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes27c5,322$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.2322433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a2f…0151backed Yes32c3,800$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No79c3,651$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.0423330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes29c3,650$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.835032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked Yes37c3,156$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,158.221435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9919931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404f…561dbacked Yes41c2,920$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.581816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-54%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes24c2,550$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.856235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes15c2,325$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.8311039.1%43 W · 67 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+115.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes18c1,655$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No63c1,587$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.212049.2%59 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes24c1,341$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.56137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick21cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes29c1,200$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd7…2c89backed Yes26c1,193$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes24c1,150$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.43231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes32c1,119$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.32330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+78.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes22c1,044$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.22913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+67.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed No76c922.21$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.721827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7924…9364backed Yes44c912.91$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c6…d5c1backed Yes26c871.02$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes23c828$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.0810433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No77c815.58$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.586532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c767.93$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4315148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes34c700.52$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.569024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes28c589.46$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.961936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No76c460.11$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.751428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes33c429.56$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.158636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe65f…a749backed Yes21c427.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked Yes25c400$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.652540%10 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes19c337$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-50.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…9015backed Yes31c323.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes25c315.53$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-51.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+98.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes25c275.48$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcee…bda5backed Yes36c272.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.945145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c262.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4214024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda78…e9c1backed No64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked No67c236$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe622…d080backed Yes20c230$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No60c227.93$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d59…b22cbacked Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b24…d646backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes24c199.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4870%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a28…3a9abacked Yes12c189$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No70c188.99$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.552152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c3…3700backed Yes22c179.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes29c158.88$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No59c146.45$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.641050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c134.49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339c…3333backed Yes26c132.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47b7…c5babacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes20c123.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25224.5%1 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No79c123$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.421145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No76c115.01$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.183435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fd0…eb9dbacked Yes17c113.3$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes15c110.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+715%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No61c110$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.911334.5%39 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97df…3088backed Yes18c110$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.62733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ac…312dbacked Yes36c106.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No58c101.09$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.551560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes24c100.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.329144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4117528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6320242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…4adabacked Yes28c98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.58333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes18c95.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.531050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9cf…75d1backed Yes23c94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No71c93.52$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.411855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes16c91.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.714240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd703…b62ebacked No76c91.15$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes23c90.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7114325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes25c77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.251330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No63c69.52$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.724751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x616b…4070backed Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d7b…babcbacked Yes17c60.24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…fd88backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a31…f2f0backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6fc…1f03backed Yes35c49.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No77c47.83$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.791163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x554f…3e8abacked Yes23c47.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes23c46.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24c3…adfbbacked Yes25c46.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No57c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.974344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d1…5129backed No74c16.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.36650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.