World Politics · resolved market
25% South Korea tariff in effect by August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90daf743fc513314418f7ace40086eb74491ae950f336624cb2bae30fb06cd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked No | 78c | 6,390$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.43 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 0c | 3,731$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…e0ccbacked Yes | 18c | 2,566$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e98…ae0fbacked No | 76c | 2,270$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.98 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed No | 67c | 1,659$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 24c | 1,630$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,598$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9c74backed Yes | 23c | 1,515$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.59 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 21c | 1,496$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed Yes | 47c | 1,223$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…9863backed Yes | 21c | 1,200$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 20c | 1,199$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 26c | 1,159$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed No | 65c | 622.87$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…0a2fbacked No | 69c | 599.99$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 30c | 597$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.4 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed No | 50c | 595.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 569.76$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed No | 54c | 557.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 25c | 535.73$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…eea8backed No | 66c | 510.75$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…361bbacked No | 79c | 500$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed No | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.62 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 436.4$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 17c | 429.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…2e51backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 31c | 372.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 356.42$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.8 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed No | 68c | 337.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 31c | 322.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed No | 63c | 301$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 56c | 289.56$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 39c | 286.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 77c | 261.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 23c | 237.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 229.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84c…4b4dbacked Yes | 25c | 220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 218$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7497backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 169.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…6854backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 148.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 22c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 21c | 134.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 19c | 129.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 70c | 104.53$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x190c…8cf4backed Yes | 48c | 104.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 73c | 101.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes | 20c | 100.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1592…efbdbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 25c | 99.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4a…3ff5backed No | 79c | 88.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 58c | 80.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 57c | 74.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 26c | 70.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…09b2backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…f649backed Yes | 36c | 64.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef99…090cbacked Yes | 42c | 62.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad5…e584backed Yes | 37c | 54.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…307ebacked No | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc050…d232backed Yes | 40c | 44.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…e937backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 29c | 39.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked No | 58c | 32.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked No | 48c | 32.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…e688backed No | 78c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…c1bcbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…bb8abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…31dbbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.