MLB · resolved market
Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a00c886993ec333c2ceb37a7bd6ba557b1457617f924eaca64922f44b97206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d87…edfcbacked Yes | 54c | 34,093$18,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,410.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…ebf7backed No | 46c | 34,093$15,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,410.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 52c | 15,824$8,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,230.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 47c | 9,558$4,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.74 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…fcfbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,354$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 58c | 1,434$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.11 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 59c | 1,383$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.9 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 38c | 1,333$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 53c | 863.96$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.9 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 54c | 825.52$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.14 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 37c | 785.11$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 66c | 463.39$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.71 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 41c | 452$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 46c | 438$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 42c | 436.65$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.58 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 416.61$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 5c | 412.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 70c | 347$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 43c | 340$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 44c | 272.23$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +293.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 31c | 247.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 223$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 52c | 182.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 38c | 101$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 62c | 101$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 100.1$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 29c | 98.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 45c | 94.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 60c | 86.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 49c | 84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 49c | 81.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 46c | 81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…6507backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 37c | 74.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 156 | 44.9%70 W · 86 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 29c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1,718.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…82e8backed Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…77b3backed Yes | 42c | 60.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd21…1fc3backed Yes | 44c | 45.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f9…550fbacked No | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 31c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 67c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 55c | 38.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5807…d6c7backed No | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…d4d5backed No | 73c | 34.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c9…7b7cbacked No | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…6ba9backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division?this page
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division?Yes won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the NL East Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.