MLB · resolved market
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4059c6537c9aa234fb88df1c3f6439df37dfd38af60dae18903bd1a29e8e03a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $469,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $471,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa44c…c458backed No | 59c | 43,123$25,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,442.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1e…8921backed Yes | 41c | 43,123$17,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,442.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…cf9abacked Yes | 48c | 38,604$18,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,074.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…b1dcbacked No | 52c | 38,604$20,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,074.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe6…c41abacked Yes | 42c | 38,277$16,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,200.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…4b7ebacked No | 58c | 38,277$22,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,200.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…ebdcbacked Yes | 46c | 35,514$16,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,177.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…111cbacked No | 54c | 35,514$19,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,177.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…da6dbacked Yes | 44c | 32,766$14,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,348.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7678backed No | 56c | 32,766$18,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,348.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…9275backed No | 54c | 29,677$16,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,025.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…ff49backed Yes | 46c | 29,677$13,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,025.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 53c | 3,774$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.39 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 58c | 2,735$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.1 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 43c | 2,134$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.77 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 2,067$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.05 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 41c | 1,739$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.92 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 1,121$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.57 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 74c | 595$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 32c | 554.54$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.84 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 38c | 416$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.37 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 55c | 414.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 64c | 339$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 47c | 326.53$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 42c | 289.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.17 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 70c | 198.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 184.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 20c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 53c | 172$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 80c | 150.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 70c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…db9dbacked No | 22c | 136.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 34c | 103$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 68c | 102$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 74c | 91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 43c | 89.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 70c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +1,718.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Yes | 64c | 65.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 40c | 63.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…bea8backed No | 54c | 53.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…2bd1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 52c | 44.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Yes | 51c | 42.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 48c | 36.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7b…babcbacked No | 49c | 33.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 56c | 30.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 30.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…f4b5backed Yes | 56c | 28.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…d4d5backed No | 72c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division?this page
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the NL East Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.