MLB · resolved market
Will the Atlanta Braves win the NL East Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa09fbef9eaacdb87dc55446ed93b8be62b0339e5f0b4fb7db271fcf5a4dac897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 17c | 4,103$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.1 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 21c | 3,589$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.27 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 3,194$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.36 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 956.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…fcfbbacked No | 62c | 900$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 651.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 21c | 306.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 293.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8b82backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked Yes | 30c | 230$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 163 | 52.1%85 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 21c | 184.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 105.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…957dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 15c | 98.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 79c | 79.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 78c | 67.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked No | 56c | 57.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…d4d5backed Yes | 44c | 57.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed No | 80c | 50.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the NL East Division?this page
- Will the Miami Marlins win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the NL East Division?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the NL East Division?Yes won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the NL East Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.