Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350e242470fcba553bd6ca9563533a76d239a6b404c991599301f433e2ed8d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 41c | 525.8$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.86 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…d787backed Yes | 36c | 349.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 36c | 242.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 38c | 180$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 57c | 125$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…6883backed Yes | 45c | 69.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 51c | 55.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…b9eebacked Yes | 57c | 52.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 51.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…cb09backed Yes | 50c | 40.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 56c | 34.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…329bbacked Yes | 43c | 24.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 57c | 19.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?this page
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%?No won
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be ≤3.9%?No won
- Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.