Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. national debt hit $38 trillion in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc14e6dd7fa70145b210e7a58000bfcd14fbff670c07c2f61afe35b3d9a221872
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 23c | 4,199$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.14 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked No | 16c | 2,308$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…9e1bbacked No | 12c | 1,530$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed No | 12c | 1,292$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 18c | 1,106$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -7.2wins | -0.20per pick | 23cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 20c | 1,103$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.21 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed No | 10c | 903.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed No | 23c | 854.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 14c | 789.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 10c | 494.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 78c | 314$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 254.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 10c | 202.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed No | 18c | 162.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 15c | 159.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 148$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…398fbacked No | 19c | 110.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 19c | 96.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 14c | 91.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 18c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 76c | 66.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d23…fcd1backed No | 17c | 64.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 79c | 56.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 78c | 22.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. national debt hit $38 trillion in 2025?this page
- Will the U.S. national debt hit $37 trillion in 2025?Yes won
- Will the U.S. national debt hit $39 trillion in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.