MLB · resolved market
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa933f722cea9dfde3edb0fb506598cd252e73c353a9e1a006fd1e1e069277d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 48c | 5,710$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,997.06 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Yes | 61c | 4,101$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.34 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 38c | 3,537$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.17 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,412$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 49c | 2,763$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.93 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,137$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.07 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 63c | 1,876$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 72c | 1,030$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.7 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,009$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.38 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed No | 58c | 930.83$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.4 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…bd53backed No | 50c | 926.83$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 69c | 880$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…98acbacked Yes | 60c | 800.29$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 66c | 672.34$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.5 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…3619backed No | 40c | 620$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 563$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 13c | 487.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 60c | 400$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…7f4fbacked No | 43c | 357$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 20c | 341.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…e330backed Yes | 65c | 340$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 40c | 295.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 39c | 282.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 75c | 255$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 37c | 246.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…f648backed Yes | 36c | 216.67$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 15c | 206$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.16 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…9b22backed No | 40c | 205$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 199.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.41 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 58c | 191.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 41c | 190.03$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 175.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b87…274cbacked No | 49c | 152.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 46c | 112.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda9…0aa8backed No | 35c | 102.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 49c | 80.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 61c | 78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 67c | 74.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 51c | 59.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 59c | 55.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2a…031dbacked Yes | 66c | 54.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b6b9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…baacbacked No | 36c | 44.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Yes | 36c | 42.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…9e47backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…67fcbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 51c | 21.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…9213backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…b41bbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division?this page
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East Division?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.