MLB · resolved market
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East Division?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909d39349ccb80d299d2ba14530fae9c26cfc2ac5dc51b7fb1ff7d9c29ed6fb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 25c | 42,837$10,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,595.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 75c | 20,758$15,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,189.54 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 11,825$9,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.38 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 2,762$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.67 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 9c | 2,007$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 1,571$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.75 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 79c | 540.37$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 12c | 485$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 8c | 410$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5241…f648backed Yes | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 182$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 74c | 138$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 79c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 69c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the AL East Division?this page
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the AL East Division?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the AL East Division?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.