Macro Indicators · resolved market
Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52bcacee91873a53b46d49231b04329b013d6ff38a82b9ac788d96bc907a8f1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0869…3e89backed No | 55c | 32,637$17,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,950.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…2a18backed Yes | 45c | 32,637$14,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,950.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…33e5backed No | 57c | 26,756$15,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,250.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…73bbbacked Yes | 43c | 26,756$11,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,250.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed Yes | 62c | 2,552$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 4c | 1,804$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 34c | 1,723$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 9c | 1,579$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 68c | 1,241$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.75 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,229$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975d…01bebacked No | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 15c | 909$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 25c | 890.44$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…0b44backed No | 2c | 822.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…b10fbacked No | 7c | 758.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 39c | 758.04$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 43c | 732.39$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 57c | 727.62$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…48b2backed No | 22c | 600.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +1,251.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3afe…01d4backed Yes | 75c | 469.99$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 55c | 400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…2addbacked No | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…9fc0backed No | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 288.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 245.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.07 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 12c | 238.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 26c | 234.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes | 59c | 234$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 54c | 220$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +136.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6571…9827backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…b1b8backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +175%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 71c | 169$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb53…0412backed No | 6c | 168.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 62c | 165$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 73c | 157$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 14c | 155.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c9…5152backed Yes | 75c | 153$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 72c | 139.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed Yes | 74c | 138.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…80c5backed No | 28c | 137.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…6466backed Yes | 36c | 130$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…8b95backed No | 19c | 117.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 50c | 105.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked No | 52c | 99.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 27c | 98.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 46c | 90.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e7…902ebacked No | 69c | 72.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 70.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…44febacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…f071backed No | 31c | 64.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x264d…6f2bbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 37c | 55.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 54c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…5804backed Yes | 79c | 50.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d1…8749backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…adbfbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 55c | 48.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…e0cdbacked No | 29c | 48.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…67ccbacked No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 37c | 45.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 56c | 40.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…b6afbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…b6bebacked No | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 48c | 35.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 38c | 34.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 67c | 33.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed No | 61c | 32.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…4eacbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…e335backed Yes | 79c | 31.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd09…5f15backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…633cbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…518bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…4356backed No | 62c | 28.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…c4a8backed Yes | 41c | 27.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked No | 58c | 24.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e1…adf3backed Yes | 61c | 23.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 53c | 23.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 77c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 71c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…354bbacked Yes | 70c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab1…32ddbacked Yes | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.