AI · resolved market
Palmer Luckey Erebor Bank chartered in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab546ce89fecbcf52e2e1b4156dfae36f80cbd8cd6af6427b7f96ac33ce4f28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 63c | 1,767$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00b…e3fdbacked No | 44c | 900$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb9…2393backed Yes | 56c | 900$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e821backed Yes | 26c | 756.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 78c | 714$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 50c | 529$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…93eebacked Yes | 42c | 280.86$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 68c | 276$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 60c | 275.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 45c | 204$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 197.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 197.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…22a5backed Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 43c | 110.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 58c | 106.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1d0dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68a…1e6dbacked Yes | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…8211backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…bcacbacked No | 28c | 90.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…511ebacked No | 72c | 69.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 51c | 52.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…03c4backed Yes | 50c | 50.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 46.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3324…88e3backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 53c | 36.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc892…29dfbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…d171backed No | 67c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed No | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.