TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcad4…1a4cbacked No78c3,173$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.868330.1%25 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4065…dc80backed Yes23c2,449$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No14c1,333$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.682540%10 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes1c1,216$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1707…93c4backed Yes66c869.98$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.013531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+3.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No79c868.06$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.063534.3%12 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-46.9%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa8d2…a9b4backed No70c669.5$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa0…7e23backed Yes18c655.03$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65a3…e615backed Yes66c567.73$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x859f…112fbacked Yes10c491.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c472.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.731,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No17c464.61$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.282458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc84c…4b4dbacked Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick16cpaid+35.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes33c399.98$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.722133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e01…cfeebacked No77c390$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes22c379$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6712332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…8feebacked No9c323.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.34450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+255%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8663…b280backed No17c319.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.19850%4 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+129%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No6c310$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.91315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae4d…fc45backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed No29c258.7$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No66c258.7$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.963135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x190c…8cf4backed No57c238.12$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes13c220.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.038716.1%14 W · 73 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes9c210.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8899017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xd99c…ead4backed No10c200$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+612.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No25c184.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.963411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No40c171.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.871650%8 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ca…c084backed Yes22c149.64$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed No14c139.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+597.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed No42c132.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.452240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+69.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes20c129.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.721136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick18cpaid+382.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes22c127.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4517227.9%48 W · 124 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes17c119.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed No11c102.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.792532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…5defbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No42c93.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.552630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No19c81.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.621540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes18c81.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3e…9c71backed Yes19c78.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No45c78.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.251369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3eba…60cebacked Yes26c73.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d8c…3a74backed No42c69.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.052100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+223.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ad5…e584backed Yes22c46.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.141323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes79c41.32$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.774143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e9d…478abacked Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-74%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf9…dcb5backed Yes79c29.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x284c…4438backed Yes76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes58c21.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.286114.8%9 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes53c20.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.863925.6%10 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.