TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Macro Indicators · resolved market

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$149,050

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,040 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes44c23,738$10,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,453.738636%31 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes48c12,374$5,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,945.734916.3%8 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed Yes47c9,835$4,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,573.375032%16 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes47c7,116$3,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,358.9410433.7%35 W · 69 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No54c6,934$3,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.69144%40 W · 51 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No57c5,575$3,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,424.123330.5%71 W · 162 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ea…d556backed Yes46c4,940$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.291936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ab…070ebacked Yes39c4,246$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.151435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes44c3,600$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9819931.7%63 W · 136 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…c149backed Yes42c3,526$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.952236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+208.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b03…e8afbacked Yes46c3,400$1,566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,566.164027.5%11 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+56.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c2,726$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.815148.3%73 W · 78 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b5…a403backed Yes43c2,494$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.112630.8%8 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb525…705bbacked Yes46c2,289$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.292540%10 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes49c2,200$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0783821.1%8 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes48c1,758$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.624731.9%15 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2503…4f5ebacked Yes45c1,701$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fa…f2f0backed Yes51c1,612$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3161…daf5backed Yes48c1,533$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.293426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes50c1,502$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.822433.9%76 W · 148 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+69%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes47c1,500$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6547…8043backed Yes52c1,480$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.992142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No51c1,119$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.976532.3%21 W · 44 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7b4…e4a0backed Yes56c1,042$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes49c1,021$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes41c942.37$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.399024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018a…4651backed Yes53c932.84$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.72123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes41c899$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.161136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes42c701.96$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.832524%6 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x430f…d787backed Yes48c645.6$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3111216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes39c533.51$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.071637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes45c527.18$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3814024.3%34 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfda7…153bbacked Yes50c495.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…b071backed Yes47c479.05$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.113928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes50c336.18$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.21250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2684…d3d6backed Yes46c324.43$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.242630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6de…7c3ebacked Yes47c320$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No51c295.56$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.72850%14 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes45c290$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9d…a540backed No52c287$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No54c279.08$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bec…56d0backed Yes44c274.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda78…e9c1backed Yes37c260$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.21540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes47c249.99$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfdee…b0d0backed Yes48c207.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked No56c190.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.011346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes48c185$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.86235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1542…7474backed Yes44c163.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c36…8d72backed No58c147.24$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc5…b275backed Yes49c132.31$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+82.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57bd…cf55backed Yes49c130$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-38.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe571…7c4ebacked No59c127.17$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes50c108$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5414325.2%36 W · 107 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…3ec0backed Yes44c103.09$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes46c97.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.917528%49 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No62c82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.162152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…aee5backed Yes43c82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.261338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No59c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.411560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1325…b555backed Yes52c74.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596e…8cc7backed Yes49c74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No51c70.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.785932.2%19 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No51c65.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.461855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…3d4dbacked Yes50c59.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5950…701cbacked Yes47c52.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256827.9%19 W · 49 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17b9…6d8abacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c46.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8220242.1%85 W · 117 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d7b…435cbacked Yes45c44.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No53c43.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.143435.3%12 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes50c43.19$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9105…721bbacked Yes63c42.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09a2…eb8abacked Yes52c38.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8035…c57fbacked No53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No44c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1629913.7%41 W · 258 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…1d8bbacked No51c35.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fea…4ed2backed Yes45c24.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No50c23.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3aa…bddcbacked No52c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.084344.2%19 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf25e…5462backed Yes59c17.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.