Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d2170d58575d9f292342dc6d628716ca0369ea4200ce721a7cdc8b4405ff309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 3c | 31,694$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.51 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 14,640$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.37 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a403backed Yes | 3c | 10,286$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.24 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 2c | 9,516$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 8,780$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.81 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 2c | 7,509$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 6,462$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,211$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 5,935$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 3c | 3,569$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,678$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…114dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,478$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,117$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,998$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 2c | 987.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 1c | 979.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 662$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…43dabacked Yes | 2c | 644.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31f…8d86backed Yes | 4c | 588.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…d787backed Yes | 4c | 534.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 478.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…5818backed Yes | 3c | 452.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 5c | 390$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fa…f2f0backed Yes | 3c | 345$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in June?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.