Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump endorse Eric Adams?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ef884791dfb0a02c3e2cd3ea37086d458cbcf4b3c589d1bd3d56f50fafe46ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 27c | 4,720$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.85 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 74c | 1,446$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.65 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 67c | 1,311$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.41 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 12c | 1,181$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 13c | 1,158$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 929$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.46 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 772.06$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked No | 63c | 760.55$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 12c | 501.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 41c | 478.62$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.78 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed Yes | 19c | 437.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 14c | 425.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 15c | 413$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 15c | 405$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 34c | 382.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 59c | 353.77$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.75 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 38c | 343.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 64c | 304.07$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.97 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 39c | 280.65$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 60c | 272.77$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.37 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 56c | 251.27$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.41 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…cbcdbacked Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Yes | 17c | 217$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…1028backed Yes | 53c | 211.69$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 68c | 178.17$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 177.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed No | 63c | 166.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 143.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 68c | 138.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 37c | 104.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…a106backed Yes | 37c | 104$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 12c | 101.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 28c | 100.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…94f0backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed No | 51c | 99.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 62c | 98.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 97.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e1…c5cabacked Yes | 18c | 84.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb8…7d13backed No | 58c | 81.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Yes | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…9d6bbacked No | 68c | 65.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 61c | 65.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 54c | 59.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…04acbacked No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a8…c5c8backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 67c | 53.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 49c | 52.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked No | 67c | 50.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 33c | 48.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 44c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…ec9bbacked No | 61c | 41.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…2937backed Yes | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…c7aabacked No | 70c | 30.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 79c | 19.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 61c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.