Weather · resolved market
Will a hurricane form by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34fd49432062d39303523d21d5aec3137e31dea444621ef3184356dd01823569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 17c | 8,449$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.91 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 18c | 7,185$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.35 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 13c | 4,055$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 16c | 2,427$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.37 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 2,350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked No | 28c | 2,342$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 9c | 1,123$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 70c | 1,121$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 9c | 846.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 10c | 722.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 23c | 663.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 25c | 647.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 9c | 616.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 21c | 600$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 26c | 508.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 496.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 19c | 466.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 24c | 418.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked No | 30c | 393.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 389.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed No | 31c | 369.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…80acbacked No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 12c | 333$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 21c | 300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 12c | 297.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…c052backed No | 6c | 241.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 13c | 238.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 12c | 237.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…9a43backed Yes | 80c | 162.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…63edbacked No | 14c | 146.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 24c | 138.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…a000backed Yes | 74c | 133.78$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 130.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 79c | 128.32$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed No | 31c | 116.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…5c9dbacked No | 18c | 107.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed No | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cd0abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 68c | 97.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 17c | 59.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 77c | 41.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…fe6abacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa997…4b77backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5267…9342backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.