Ukraine · resolved market
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab94b90af7492b5db8249f78020c06f102216b9e6049f706bd4f32ee1246f5a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 19c | 692.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 80c | 447.51$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 197.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 74c | 192.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 23c | 140.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 43c | 115.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed Yes | 34c | 90.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed Yes | 28c | 89.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 54c | 86.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 79c | 73.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 24c | 67.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 50c | 66.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +92%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…86efbacked No | 76c | 65.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 79c | 29.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed No | 79c | 29.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 46c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 62c | 16.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 75c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?this page
- NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.