Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump disparage Vladimir Putin on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc8d404c263c8227c8ba37a98b379cf9196afab8645904510027e859cf28951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 12c | 13,982$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.84 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 16c | 4,500$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.29 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 2,358$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 18c | 2,164$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.58 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 19c | 1,120$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…42acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c4…a20fbacked Yes | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…4f79backed Yes | 15c | 735.83$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 480$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…e0ddbacked Yes | 15c | 370$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…bc00backed Yes | 15c | 315$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 15c | 259.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 77c | 195.71$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 16c | 178.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf74…b16cbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ea…ff82backed Yes | 19c | 98.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…5b3cbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 16c | 78.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.