AI · resolved market
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342d6456567b2114b09c65f93af9a0c4352fe8fe97d3cbc5fa9da72091e5b32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2deb…9e9abacked No | 75c | 1,935$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 25c | 587.08$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 26c | 579.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.79 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…510fbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 226.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 25c | 188.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…9299backed Yes | 25c | 183.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 174.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b2…0653backed Yes | 25c | 156.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 7c | 148.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 36c | 104.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd6…b33cbacked Yes | 28c | 99.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…f20fbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…9828backed No | 72c | 71.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 65c | 65.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 64.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 36c | 55.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…a1f1backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 73c | 47.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065b…714fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…5630backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2746…5f00backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 38.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 37.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 33.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 72c | 25.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 73c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 16.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.00 and $4.00 on July 31, 2026?this page
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $6.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $2.00 and $3.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $2.00 on July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.