Token Launches · resolved market
Over $4M committed to the Makina public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d7cda160a9bc8800d1a0baad01dd69a08a5b6f30625d64f34eb9b93fc8d6220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,235$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,241$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…9297backed No | 40c | 1,210$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…c9b1backed No | 32c | 1,177$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Yes | 46c | 783.38$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 65c | 777$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.05 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…d65dbacked Yes | 64c | 659.64$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.17 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…6f64backed No | 39c | 617.17$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.07 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…a193backed No | 50c | 583.38$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…de0cbacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…370abacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed No | 68c | 433.09$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.59 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…0026backed Yes | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…2903backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 65c | 313.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…9bcdbacked No | 39c | 254.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…6c40backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…93fcbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…4af9backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b40…e0d5backed No | 36c | 159.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…5495backed Yes | 71c | 122.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 67c | 113.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf94a…74b3backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…de7ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…a718backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8d08…9165backed Yes | 61c | 89.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba94…d855backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…805ebacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…2c5cbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $4M committed to the Makina public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.