Token Launches · resolved market
Over $20M committed to the Makina public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d48c59803596b84e7d8a2b5225f62c09826843b86f6919dd0b955d965ac0baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $188,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $188,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 2c | 12,460$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c68…2ddcbacked Yes | 2c | 10,758$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…cc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,166$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,126$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,833$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4d…1ee4backed Yes | 4c | 3,740$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 1c | 3,690$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…8a8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,947$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 2c | 2,701$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…9603backed Yes | 4c | 2,701$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,362$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…4af9backed Yes | 2c | 1,690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…d8bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 7c | 1,450$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…6a1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,366$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1309…ad99backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,149$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…09c7backed Yes | 10c | 1,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…f82abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…5d10backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6052…da09backed Yes | 3c | 765.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed Yes | 2c | 750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Yes | 2c | 610$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7898…644cbacked Yes | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…8eccbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 594.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed Yes | 4c | 519.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…770ebacked Yes | 5c | 420$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed Yes | 4c | 405.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed Yes | 4c | 289.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked Yes | 4c | 258.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 78c | 205$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…36aebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…2c5cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $20M committed to the Makina public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $3M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $4M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.