Token Launches · resolved market
Over $3M committed to the Makina public sale?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131ae203c7a2fd785dc18d501581f5db9fdad772fc14248ace4f10bdbba5cd37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed No | 3c | 21,169$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,470.06 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Yes | 1c | 12,861$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 0c | 12,410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e30…382dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,906$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…3d06backed No | 63c | 3,876$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.02 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…9297backed No | 9c | 3,500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 3c | 3,333$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,233.33 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…c3ccbacked No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +525%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2616…8d3cbacked No | 10c | 2,406$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164.99 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…8d5fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…da1ebacked No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,940 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 52c | 1,732$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.32 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…3fdabacked No | 19c | 1,500$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…82e6backed No | 5c | 1,453$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.19 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Yes | 27c | 1,024$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…6a0cbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 19c | 850$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…2c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…c9b1backed Yes | 11c | 666.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 629.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…bb84backed No | 39c | 535.41$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.18 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…9bcdbacked Yes | 18c | 453$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…81cfbacked Yes | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2da9…763cbacked No | 59c | 168.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 20c | 120.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 116$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…64c8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ff…25f1backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…032abacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 50c | 26.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over $3M committed to the Makina public sale?this page
- Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $20M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?Yes won
- Over $4M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
- Over $5M committed to the Makina public sale?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.