Weather · resolved market
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda723d8cbd9d75ec4e9e34fb33e7fbe4ec918c440016c5310bb075cef1802c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 7,995$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.26 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 6c | 6,128$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 60c | 6,002$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.91 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…2b85backed Yes | 49c | 5,766$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 39c | 3,884$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 75c | 3,641$2,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3479…f2bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,646$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,180$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.8 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 24c | 2,172$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.31 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 62c | 2,065$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.67 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 24c | 1,909$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 75c | 1,810$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,072$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 10c | 995.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +443.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 75c | 927.33$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.67 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 68c | 858.63$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.99 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b19…50b7backed Yes | 42c | 803.82$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 32c | 800$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fca…22e4backed Yes | 53c | 571.06$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 43c | 525.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked No | 49c | 510.26$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 64c | 500$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 428.28$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…6113backed Yes | 22c | 404.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 79c | 391.61$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 388.45$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 80c | 373.72$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 361.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.62 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 12c | 314.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…8931backed Yes | 46c | 300.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 76c | 300$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 282.15$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 249.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 48c | 243.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 57c | 221.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 46c | 194.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 28c | 181.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c14ebacked No | 55c | 136.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 50c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…d362backed Yes | 19c | 106.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…ca12backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 41c | 97.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 18c | 65.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25b…dc9fbacked No | 79c | 62.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 78c | 57.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 78c | 55.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 69c | 50.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…b410backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…766cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…bdc2backed No | 55c | 45.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe161…7854backed No | 76c | 45.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…1079backed Yes | 44c | 43.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x326a…8fabbacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…c799backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb505…92d3backed No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…560dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.