Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4948b3f7248736da6cb3b73cc0ee25818802fc9a93f2f535fe3693ff27074441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc597…2286backed Yes | 54c | 1,861$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 41c | 1,691$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.12 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 48c | 1,310$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.2 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 46c | 1,297$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 58c | 599.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 44cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 276$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 25c | 235$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…ed5bbacked Yes | 77c | 233.93$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 150.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…f6fabacked Yes | 71c | 150.14$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed No | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…6305backed No | 31c | 103.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…3794backed No | 75c | 93.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 47c | 88.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 88.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked Yes | 40c | 85.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 35c | 82.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 80.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 47c | 75.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 39c | 66.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 26c | 64.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 54.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 53.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…a89abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…88fdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…f033backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…e9d9backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed Yes | 49c | 45.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 59c | 43.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…1655backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…72bebacked No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 33.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…51f8backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 54c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…cf3cbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…4947backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 59c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…56babacked Yes | 70c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?this page
- Will 220-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 230-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.