Commodities · resolved market
Will 220-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27afa9199ff1d5f109b4b7cf227a8f0acc931374f96b9c50761d9cd42a1d546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 60c | 165$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 116.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…38ddbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 19c | 66.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 79c | 55.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 52.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748e…f4f2backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…cf3cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…a6e2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9291…71a2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…9778backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4df…d3dabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c0…1655backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…859cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…1b17backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…4b75backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…df21backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…b45dbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…72bebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…b622backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 220-229 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?this page
- Will 230-239 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?No won
- Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.