World Politics · resolved market
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe794809fdbe2d1c940b0dc98ca715a3ab7835e1d831b6d6f4df472f2bd33a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 18c | 1,934$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.52 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 30c | 919.82$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.94 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed No | 65c | 666.7$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.02 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 77c | 236$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 181.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 16c | 150.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 113.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…0a90backed Yes | 27c | 74.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 56.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 29c | 55.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…7546backed Yes | 32c | 46.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 38.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…7fd8backed No | 76c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…43a3backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3633…6376backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.