Weather · resolved market
Will Melissa become a category 5 hurricane?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6175b83d538fdea6cf54490a38b4d095973cbfd292ee82a95548076d7694b424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 38c | 134.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…b093backed Yes | 56c | 108.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 51c | 90.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 83.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 37c | 48.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b69dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…e979backed Yes | 77c | 26.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…40b4backed Yes | 78c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…47f3backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…3a94backed Yes | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melissa become a category 5 hurricane?this page
- Will Melissa become a category 2 hurricane?Yes won
- Will Melissa become a category 4 hurricane?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.