Weather · resolved market
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ee89df94e4aef5d58138ef263a190b3857b00c24625ba83ddf07ae122056a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c6b…210ebacked No | 9c | 5,978$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.75 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed No | 13c | 4,485$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 58c | 4,274$2,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 32c | 3,798$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.21 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ea…672bbacked No | 12c | 3,500$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 41c | 3,060$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 3,034$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 77c | 2,859$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 72c | 2,350$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 2,105$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 1,896$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 76c | 1,678$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 22c | 1,475$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.9 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,400$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 79c | 1,383$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.85 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 66c | 1,265$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 62c | 1,254$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked No | 9c | 1,223$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe784…9d23backed No | 1c | 1,187$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed No | 12c | 1,158$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda73…4d41backed Yes | 70c | 1,130$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 18c | 1,120$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 34c | 1,026$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.84 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 56c | 999.67$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 61c | 885.04$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.8 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 42c | 801.6$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…1376backed Yes | 78c | 754.97$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bd…ff97backed No | 32c | 718.09$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed No | 39c | 698.98$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked No | 30c | 678.12$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.57 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked No | 25c | 672.11$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 61c | 669$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…5d7bbacked No | 17c | 650.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 642.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 29c | 634.68$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe5…fe4abacked No | 10c | 610$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…b859backed Yes | 69c | 604.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 16c | 594.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…14f8backed Yes | 66c | 546.93$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 525.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.31 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed No | 19c | 521.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ad…64afbacked Yes | 66c | 506.28$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 62c | 494.82$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 61c | 485.34$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc698…b0d6backed Yes | 51c | 479.03$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked No | 30c | 477.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 63c | 473.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.11 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 33c | 460.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 36c | 441.31$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48a…e256backed No | 50c | 436.52$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 18c | 435.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…4fa7backed No | 45c | 430.83$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 31c | 413.72$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…34c0backed No | 23c | 405.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 21c | 396.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.86 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 61c | 389$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 28c | 387.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…230bbacked Yes | 73c | 379.43$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 52c | 369.98$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…593abacked No | 15c | 317.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes | 61c | 317.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 56c | 314.02$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked No | 4c | 305.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 18c | 295.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…cb88backed Yes | 56c | 294.55$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 75c | 293.11$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 290.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 28c | 290$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 67c | 286.03$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 36c | 275.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 73c | 273.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39b…c3e6backed Yes | 61c | 267.36$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 25c | 262.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…3158backed No | 6c | 251.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2351…f059backed Yes | 58c | 246$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…cc0abacked No | 19c | 242.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 61c | 240$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e82…10efbacked Yes | 72c | 240$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…a185backed Yes | 58c | 236.72$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…e062backed No | 8c | 231.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…7663backed Yes | 61c | 230$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 62c | 229.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…2960backed Yes | 64c | 220$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 50c | 220$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 60c | 211$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e84…289cbacked No | 51c | 200.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 22c | 200.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 198.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 56c | 195$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 64c | 194.54$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…4fcabacked Yes | 56c | 193.73$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked Yes | 62c | 193$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 79c | 187.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…741cbacked Yes | 65c | 183$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.