Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac865f83febf38dea2a565b661bb2ad5d1a2cf70a56a7dda5348305faff577a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 19c | 22,185$4,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,920.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 78c | 9,382$7,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,282.63 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…3017backed Yes | 20c | 4,125$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +401.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 27c | 2,696$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.92 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 35c | 1,761$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…ccbebacked No | 39c | 1,271$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 31c | 1,211$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 70c | 961.36$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.49 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed No | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 64c | 665$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.2 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 30c | 482.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 45c | 382.41$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…b35ebacked No | 30c | 334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 15c | 292.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 32c | 247.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 30c | 246$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 65c | 236.67$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…1315backed Yes | 68c | 229.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 28c | 228.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed No | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 78c | 196.28$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…13e1backed No | 54c | 186.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 31c | 186.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 55c | 161$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked No | 33c | 157.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9147backed No | 31c | 149.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 131.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.97 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…aa5ebacked Yes | 39c | 124.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…71edbacked Yes | 63c | 123.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…cd39backed No | 47c | 104.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…4d5ebacked No | 49c | 103.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed No | 59c | 101.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 32c | 93.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed No | 28c | 88.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 85.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…72bcbacked No | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f22…5f72backed No | 77c | 78.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 56.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…939fbacked Yes | 73c | 52.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…2f42backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…e840backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 48c | 46.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…5b9fbacked No | 29c | 46.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ccfbbacked Yes | 42c | 42.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 59c | 40.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9d…9854backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 37c | 38.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 59c | 36.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 56c | 34.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…ff46backed No | 63c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…1561backed No | 36c | 31.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 46c | 30.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…c7a0backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 79c | 29.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 71c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…f0f4backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 55c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Yes | 62c | 22.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fb…3108backed Yes | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…5a89backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +224.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…8d56backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bb…e85ebacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,100 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.