Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34a20f8f00b381e8ee3287c5865ed51a96fa34475b22c38f556dc58bc5bd9d56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 14c | 253.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…0e21backed Yes | 15c | 240.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 120.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…c4e3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 20c | 80.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…cd39backed Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,100 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.