TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,982 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fe2…87c5backed No73c412.84$303 inWon+$109.691421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-70.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes26c360.67$92 inLost-$92.071,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No63c188.72$118 inWon+$70.461,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe28f…9b30backed Yes34c153.64$52 inLost-$52.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No74c100$74 inWon+$2627338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe48f…4ae5backed No73c100$73 inWon+$272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa65…c059backed Yes39c86.87$34 inLost-$33.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1406…403cbacked Yes35c30$11 inLost-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.