Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f80d0d5648f3587c8435a6d1e16b76589bf9c9a8b33b2ae17bd1ede2213af6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 62c | 13,109$8,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,995.03 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 54c | 10,347$5,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,592.93 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,519$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.97 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 43c | 1,311$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.91 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 64c | 1,248$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.57 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 12c | 796.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…ccbebacked No | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…cf0bbacked No | 71c | 664$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d0…484dbacked Yes | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked No | 57c | 453.34$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 40c | 379.44$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed No | 54c | 322$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 7c | 312.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…c4e3backed Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8592…c329backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked No | 49c | 190$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 189.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 51c | 159.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +206.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…e2d7backed No | 56c | 137.29$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 39c | 130.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed No | 55c | 126.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed No | 71c | 120.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 118.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 62c | 91.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 87.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked Yes | 63c | 80.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 54c | 74.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…4d5ebacked No | 53c | 69.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 64.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 34c | 56.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 56c | 54.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…372ebacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed No | 78c | 44.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 27c | 41.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…ff46backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 77c | 39.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 54c | 34.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…28adbacked No | 44c | 34.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 43c | 33.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 32.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 42c | 28.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 58c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Yes | 73c | 17.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 69c | 16.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,100 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.