Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4403c17753b140f5ce57ead0f55c2af0bd983d6d8d894c8c388b827ae4aaecf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 71c | 2,165$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.64 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 37c | 2,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 870.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed No | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 56c | 681.82$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 73c | 659.28$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…ccc8backed Yes | 50c | 629.03$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…92e0backed Yes | 18c | 626.96$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +244.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…0255backed No | 63c | 301$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 202.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 8c | 191.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 63c | 158.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…a803backed No | 71c | 133.17$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…d5e4backed Yes | 19c | 120.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed No | 79c | 109.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed No | 72c | 96.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 38c | 76.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3948…8700backed No | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed No | 75c | 64.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 77c | 57.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked No | 65c | 56.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 51.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 44.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…f4d9backed No | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 54c | 24.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fb85backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…e840backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…77a3backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…eda4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,100 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.