TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb860…eda4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 60 out of 100; worst Europa Conference League at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Champions League — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.12
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$14.8
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+62.8%+$19.85
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+73.2%+$15.16
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$7.69
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.13
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)backed Galatasaray SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.6
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$14.06
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$28.2
Spread: Sporting CP (-1.5)backed FK Bodø/Glimt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+271.7%+$70.65
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+355.4%+$53.31
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+528.9%+$168.19
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.48
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.8
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.32
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.07
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Côte d'Ivoire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.91
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.16
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Will Bolivia qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.63
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.4
Will Denmark qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.59
Will Sweden qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$57.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$7.92
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$11.44
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.92
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)backed Leicester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$4.95
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.42
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.14
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.28
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.78
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+80.5%+$76.24
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.11
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-05-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.12
Vitória SC vs. Casa Pia AC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.43
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+61%+$17.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$18.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechiabacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.