Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x613e8ec9f2f8180477550ffab5f3123d5cf3d05fa6094f38642dcd1bcaa491c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VfB Stuttgartof FC Bayern München, VfB Stuttgart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed VfB Stuttgart | 72c | 3,407$2,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Bayern München | 14c | 2,005$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.64 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked FC Bayern München | 61c | 1,937$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VfB Stuttgart | 39c | 1,882$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed FC Bayern München | 29c | 1,500$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.99 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed FC Bayern München | 30c | 958$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed FC Bayern München | 10c | 930.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 25c | 880.28$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.19 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 543.26$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed FC Bayern München | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…26fdbacked VfB Stuttgart | 50c | 362.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 357$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 356.58$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 356.13$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked FC Bayern München | 58c | 322.58$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Bayern München | 39c | 255.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed FC Bayern München | 61c | 208.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked FC Bayern München | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…cb52backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 195.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked VfB Stuttgart | 31c | 185.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked FC Bayern München | 69c | 177.39$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…c576backed FC Bayern München | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed FC Bayern München | 28c | 137.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…8bbcbacked FC Bayern München | 28c | 136$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked FC Bayern München | 15c | 120.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed VfB Stuttgart | 41c | 117.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 35c | 113.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked VfB Stuttgart | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked FC Bayern München | 59c | 106.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…3458backed FC Bayern München | 28c | 103.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Bayern München | 24c | 102.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d18…0037backed FC Bayern München | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed VfB Stuttgart | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…7179backed FC Bayern München | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…bbb2backed FC Bayern München | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…7182backed FC Bayern München | 28c | 95.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked FC Bayern München | 12c | 94.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c65…eed3backed VfB Stuttgart | 43c | 93.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed FC Bayern München | 36c | 85.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09f…fc56backed FC Bayern München | 57c | 84.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked FC Bayern München | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…2e2abacked FC Bayern München | 26c | 73.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed VfB Stuttgart | 65c | 66.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 63.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked VfB Stuttgart | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…25e3backed FC Bayern München | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed FC Bayern München | 50c | 56.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked FC Bayern München | 27c | 54.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eca…87dabacked VfB Stuttgart | 71c | 52.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FC Bayern München | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked VfB Stuttgart | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked VfB Stuttgart | 71c | 41.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed VfB Stuttgart | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed VfB Stuttgart | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed VfB Stuttgart | 43c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed VfB Stuttgart | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked FC Bayern München | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…b138backed VfB Stuttgart | 75c | 24.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996e…fe9fbacked FC Bayern München | 57c | 22.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed VfB Stuttgart | 71c | 22.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed VfB Stuttgart | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked VfB Stuttgart | 72c | 18.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb860…eda4backed VfB Stuttgart | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.