Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01a6b6216fbe7b8c380cabf1d6707d0547706d1ed0cd7cb59cad4edac3e2ffb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Under | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,099.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 8,918$5,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf2…23e3backed Over | 39c | 4,515$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,742.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 3,926$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.68 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Over | 38c | 2,281$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.74 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 56c | 1,947$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.43 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 39c | 1,781$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.61 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 33c | 1,630$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Over | 32c | 1,600$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 38c | 1,295$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.25 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 61c | 1,100$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Under | 59c | 975.4$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 61c | 936.94$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.41 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 61c | 865.74$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.78 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 6c | 797.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 64c | 764.38$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 61c | 609$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.49 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Under | 9c | 567.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 40c | 565$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 515.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac1…3afebacked Under | 31c | 510.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…7e3fbacked Under | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 39c | 494.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.37 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Over | 42c | 457.32$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 39c | 423.3$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 60c | 391.42$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 39c | 366.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.77 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 358.19$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.49 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Over | 40c | 330$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 34c | 295$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 39c | 245.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 241.19$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.07 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 226.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 31c | 199.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 62c | 195.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 12c | 166.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Under | 60c | 162.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Under | 8c | 145.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 70c | 139.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Over | 39c | 93.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 71c | 92.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…0d96backed Over | 40c | 81.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Under | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 41c | 67.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Under | 64c | 58.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4a…044ebacked Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Over | 41c | 46.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 60c | 44.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…e004backed Under | 62c | 39.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Under | 63c | 39.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 40c | 38.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0881…356abacked Over | 39c | 32.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…eb5cbacked Over | 40c | 31.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Under | 63c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 39c | 30.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Under | 60c | 30.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c59…cdd8backed Under | 65c | 29.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 57c | 25.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 61c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Under | 61c | 24.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…2580backed Over | 60c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 77c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.