Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7123cb02da3dbefbc0f5030d47c2394f920648b017155a80785096c50d640844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 2,892$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 76c | 2,500$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,199$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 22c | 919.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e68…16c7backed Over | 80c | 696.54$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.31 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 78c | 638.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 71c | 592$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 21c | 435.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.44 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 411.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 79c | 374.69$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 74c | 350$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 30c | 318.54$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.56 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 79c | 296.22$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 79c | 296.22$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 27c | 257.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 78c | 255.3$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd254…9858backed Over | 80c | 247$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 21c | 245.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 22c | 236.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 21c | 228$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 79c | 210.32$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 21c | 199.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Under | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Under | 22c | 180$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 78c | 177.62$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked Under | 9c | 171.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…6f75backed Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Over | 79c | 124.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 79c | 120.09$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Over | 78c | 101.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf064…54a4backed Over | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 80c | 95.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 89.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Under | 18c | 80.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 78c | 79.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…1ae1backed Over | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 21c | 47.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Over | 80c | 41.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed Over | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…e44dbacked Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Over | 75c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…eb0abacked Over | 78c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.