Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64dc62f286e2aee2496415178addcfa11b4e58eb6b55ba9bf143d51b44bb6afe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 31c | 1,004$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.32 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 69c | 383.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 70c | 283.69$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.11 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 70c | 282.98$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 266.04$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 24c | 225.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 32c | 209.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed No | 30c | 194.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 19c | 148.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 72c | 147.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…1f9cbacked No | 32c | 137.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…6a68backed Yes | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 70c | 122.3$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 30c | 118.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Yes | 69c | 109.52$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 28c | 102.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 73c | 99.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Yes | 68c | 85.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 30c | 82.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 71c | 82.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 69c | 74.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 72c | 73.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 66c | 60.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8561…337bbacked No | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Yes | 69c | 51.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Yes | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 70c | 35.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Yes | 69c | 28.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…c6ccbacked Yes | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 69c | 27.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Yes | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Bayern München won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.