Us Politics · resolved market
Will courts block Trump's D.C. takeover by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027ea5eeeb13c90f007b98712c7b432e91abcf04bc5db89ba105fa3beaeb822f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 1,943$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.29 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 15c | 1,555$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 763.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.67 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 456.87$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 27c | 404.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 5c | 381.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 73c | 350$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 14c | 326.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 21c | 293.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 7c | 194.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 11c | 154.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 123.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 18c | 96.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 94.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 30c | 93.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 19c | 86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…d48bbacked Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 65c | 76.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 26c | 59.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 27c | 58.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked Yes | 36c | 30.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…15bebacked No | 71c | 28.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad5…e584backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 15.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe409…aa26backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.