Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d68f0b9a611f513fea640cc28edd2433d88744296e5dcdfebce1deca18b7ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 5,770$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d80…55c3backed Yes | 16c | 2,636$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,196$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,594$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…0cf6backed Yes | 6c | 1,556$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…e960backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 11c | 890.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…915dbacked Yes | 8c | 814.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3eb…637dbacked Yes | 12c | 784.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49df…2142backed Yes | 3c | 747.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…ef81backed Yes | 14c | 704.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab48…5dd0backed Yes | 11c | 562.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…9eb4backed Yes | 4c | 544.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…96b2backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…aa2fbacked Yes | 11c | 455.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9845…e6b0backed Yes | 14c | 449.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 445.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd2…22c4backed Yes | 9c | 423.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…e25ebacked Yes | 14c | 421.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…002dbacked Yes | 10c | 377.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…b3dcbacked Yes | 14c | 359.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 11c | 357.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…ef70backed Yes | 9c | 305.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243a…a479backed Yes | 17c | 297.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 6c | 276.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 251.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x356f…a25abacked Yes | 11c | 225.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +245.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…b12dbacked Yes | 10c | 207.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1bbcbacked Yes | 7c | 201.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d9…205abacked Yes | 11c | 179.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95d…ca9fbacked Yes | 12c | 169.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…5b31backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…53debacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 76c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $398 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $488 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $510 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $540 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $480 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $490 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $500 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $585 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $608 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $668 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.