Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf5558c378352f7a244f1fa956bfc863ce6025f49110f5f38c81d77f898984ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,470$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 2,346$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.63 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 1,523$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 39c | 1,410$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.65 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 77c | 1,256$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 51c | 1,141$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.97 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 57c | 1,013$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.37 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3eb…637dbacked Yes | 33c | 801.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 22c | 692.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 641.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Yes | 19c | 532.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +432.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd2…22c4backed Yes | 21c | 486.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ba…0918backed Yes | 10c | 482.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 456.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.5 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…ef70backed Yes | 28c | 415.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 79c | 409.89$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…fd17backed No | 21c | 344.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 335$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 40c | 250.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 53c | 229$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 12c | 222$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +725.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…5301backed No | 7c | 218$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…e07cbacked Yes | 33c | 217.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 216.14$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…002dbacked Yes | 28c | 204.78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 200.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 33c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…3ad5backed Yes | 28c | 193$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…d4a7backed Yes | 48c | 190.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 177.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +342.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Yes | 13c | 176.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 157.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 11c | 154$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 151.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…7a39backed Yes | 67c | 148.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 39c | 145.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…a742backed Yes | 71c | 141.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed No | 79c | 128.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 41c | 119.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 39c | 115.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356f…a25abacked Yes | 14c | 110.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +245.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7016…3ad0backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…e2d3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 42c | 94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9076backed No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +74%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 57c | 87.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…58b0backed Yes | 25c | 81.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +308%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +250.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 78c | 75.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 78c | 75.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…044dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 67c | 49.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…b212backed Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987c…9e49backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…036bbacked No | 80c | 27.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2557backed Yes | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…46fbbacked No | 62c | 19.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $398 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $488 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $510 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $540 in November?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $480 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $490 in Nov 25-28?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $500 in Nov 25-28?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $585 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $608 in November?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $668 in November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.