TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x00f7…5301

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.2
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.8
Blue Jays vs. Yankeesbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
Brewers vs. Cubsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$4.1
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Padres vs. Cubsbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
Marlins vs. Philliesbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+327.8%+$45.97
Mets vs. Cubsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+193.6%+$46.09
Rays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+39.4%+$16.97
White Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$11.9
Red Sox vs. Blue Jaysbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+109%+$26.07
Pirates vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.37
Tigers vs. Guardiansbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.59
Brewers vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+151.7%+$66.3
Nationals vs. Metsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.8
Athletics vs. Piratesbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Tigers vs. Marlinsbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Red Sox vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+25%+$5
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$4.09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.44
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.62
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.03
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.68
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.66
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.8
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.37
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 11, 2025, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Suns vs. Netsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Timberwolves vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Cavaliers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Suns vs. Lakersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+65.7%+$11.9
All 4 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bears vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.4
Texans vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.8
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Wild vs. Blackhawksbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$5.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+55.9%+$5.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Sep 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EuroBasket: Germany vs. Sloveniabacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$5.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$15.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$23.63
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.