College Football · resolved market
Arizona State vs. Baylor
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5330e997dd88a34e1ea810eb44174d7680c630b941e1e80fefd36613dca8e9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Stateof Arizona State, Baylor
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Arizona State | 43c | 89,081$38,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,593.31 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Baylor | 57c | 48,134$27,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,244.93 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Baylor | 57c | 40,000$22,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,800 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Baylor | 44c | 29,935$13,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,139.81 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Arizona State | 45c | 29,830$13,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,410.03 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Arizona State | 70c | 27,456$19,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,227.9 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Baylor | 44c | 26,871$11,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,757.06 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Baylor | 55c | 24,443$13,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,340.32 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Baylor | 40c | 22,512$9,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,074.77 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Baylor | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Arizona State | 46c | 13,061$5,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,087.8 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Arizona State | 65c | 8,349$5,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Arizona State | 46c | 6,500$2,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,515 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arizona State | 68c | 4,851$3,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.6 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Baylor | 31c | 2,769$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.41 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona State | 51c | 2,729$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.27 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Baylor | 49c | 2,716$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Arizona State | 43c | 2,500$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Arizona State | 52c | 2,445$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.58 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Baylor | 57c | 2,435$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.35 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Arizona State | 65c | 2,379$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.61 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Baylor | 39c | 2,338$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Baylor | 41c | 2,190$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.34 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Baylor | 48c | 2,082$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Baylor | 50c | 2,021$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.06 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Arizona State | 63c | 2,000$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Arizona State | 43c | 1,956$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baylor | 34c | 1,781$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.3 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Arizona State | 78c | 1,775$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Baylor | 59c | 1,728$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.66 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Baylor | 49c | 1,657$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Baylor | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.99 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Baylor | 42c | 1,202$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.81 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Arizona State | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Baylor | 48c | 1,044$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Arizona State | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Baylor | 34c | 987.93$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Baylor | 48c | 981.15$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.98 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Baylor | 40c | 848.96$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baylor | 55c | 837.82$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.42 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Baylor | 21c | 680$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed Arizona State | 79c | 629.52$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Arizona State | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Arizona State | 52c | 581.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.03 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Arizona State | 46c | 538.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.19 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cae…f15ebacked Arizona State | 45c | 525.26$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Baylor | 27c | 509.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.68 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Arizona State | 57c | 409.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Baylor | 40c | 391.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Baylor | 55c | 340.93$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.24 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…b23bbacked Baylor | 29c | 337.79$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Baylor | 38c | 333.93$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Baylor | 3c | 332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Arizona State | 44c | 310$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Baylor | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…32bbbacked Arizona State | 67c | 291.64$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Baylor | 56c | 271.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baylor | 35c | 250.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Baylor | 55c | 238.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Baylor | 48c | 219$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Baylor | 46c | 215.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Baylor | 19c | 213$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Baylor | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Arizona State | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Baylor | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…b8e3backed Arizona State | 57c | 174.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Baylor | 48c | 162.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5441…da3bbacked Arizona State | 57c | 145.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…8030backed Baylor | 35c | 140.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Arizona State | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Arizona State | 52c | 103.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona State | 61c | 103.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Baylor | 23c | 100.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Arizona State | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Arizona State | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed Baylor | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Arizona State | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4652…f8acbacked Arizona State | 65c | 99.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Baylor | 55c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…74ccbacked Baylor | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Baylor | 56c | 89.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Arizona State | 48c | 87.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5254…5f7dbacked Arizona State | 64c | 85.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Baylor | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…a240backed Arizona State | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Baylor | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Arizona State | 44c | 64.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Baylor | 48c | 62.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Baylor | 57c | 61.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…48e2backed Baylor | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Arizona State | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked Arizona State | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Arizona State | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baylor | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…5301backed Baylor | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Baylor | 22c | 49.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baylor | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baylor | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Arizona State | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…9d4bbacked Baylor | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State vs. Baylorthis page
- Arizona State vs. Baylor: O/U 59.5Under won
- Spread: Baylor (-2.5)Arizona State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.