Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca842d5d9a3d833e97537cb9a7f4c3196065ef70e9dc16c2a3bcd9d8f780884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 59c | 30,000$17,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,700 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 41c | 29,469$12,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,386.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 54c | 14,688$7,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,861.05 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 47c | 9,376$4,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,984.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 75c | 3,711$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 64c | 2,806$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.93 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 46c | 2,797$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.91 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 56c | 2,605$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.09 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 45c | 2,361$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.6 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…161fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,725$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f807backed No | 59c | 1,720$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed No | 54c | 1,465$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 1,226$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked No | 41c | 847$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 58c | 691.61$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.13 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ed…f9c8backed Yes | 40c | 617.85$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 40c | 500$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 428.57$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.57 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 49c | 369$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.08 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 323.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 49c | 314.44$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.68 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed No | 60c | 313.33$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 57c | 251.16$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 32c | 243.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf8…e27cbacked Yes | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 61c | 189.66$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 46c | 163.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.49 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe468…926ebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…1335backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 45c | 110$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…c452backed No | 57c | 62.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed No | 56c | 61.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 52c | 40.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 44c | 35.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…3e6dbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 52c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…5301backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will Werder Bremen vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.