Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b3ca7891ecc1fb88ca8d9662f1876ddae8373b87c3b1cfe3e533f62e5565d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 25c | 13,690$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.58 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 74c | 8,684$6,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.9 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 74c | 8,227$6,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.89 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 33c | 2,424$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 28c | 2,292$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.24 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 25c | 1,360$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.73 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 73c | 1,061$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.4 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 648$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.93 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 22c | 646$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 33c | 516$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 66c | 470.76$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 32c | 379.3$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 32c | 311.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…daf8backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 71c | 162.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 73c | 154$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 66c | 118.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 38c | 90.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2554…0b51backed Yes | 34c | 78.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Yes | 27c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 66c | 67.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 32c | 66.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 68c | 64.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4962…41e9backed Yes | 34c | 63.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 67c | 61.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 34c | 59.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Yes | 24c | 54.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 77c | 39.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…2077backed No | 68c | 23.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…cadcbacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Werder Bremen vs. FC St. Pauli end in a draw?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.