TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,386 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde17…0988backed No79c20,922$16,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.533056.7%17 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes2c17,823$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.311466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe5…8e3dbacked Yes36c14,992$5,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,407.2540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes1c13,828$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.17250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66be…65a8backed Yes3c9,067$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes8c8,987$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.054912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc1f…7631backed No67c8,190$5,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.43447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes6c7,951$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.72626.9%7 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick10cpaid+100.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e65…0303backed Yes2c4,239$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c3,957$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.16785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked Yes6c3,252$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.9611720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes0c2,916$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.411970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes3c2,829$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.521792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes1c2,719$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes3c2,445$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.161672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7496…3962backed Yes3c2,302$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.481811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes5c1,889$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.663998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes21c1,888$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.5414213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c1,602$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.228116%13 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No61c1,560$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.514050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes5c1,453$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.61922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c1,373$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.832581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b2b…315fbacked Yes4c1,340$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes4c1,300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.22683.4%9 W · 259 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7e2…b6cbbacked Yes30c1,226$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.142937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf49d…3c3bbacked Yes3c1,153$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.98100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8693…31cdbacked Yes2c1,133$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991020%2 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c962.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.514754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f3…2822backed Yes21c943.59$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.272025%5 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…7a12backed No60c900$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604650%23 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6dc…246ebacked No59c864$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0413770.1%96 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f82…463bbacked Yes38c769.92$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.69825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3673…ce22backed Yes3c749.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5837.2%6 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes42c671.19$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.45954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81b…6ca9backed Yes3c599.71$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.79137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes30c526.65$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes4c474.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.382147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes41c469.13$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc56…f41fbacked No69c439.71$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Yes34c366.22$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.571020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26c3…e26dbacked Yes3c362.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…e32abacked Yes16c359.07$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.021136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick24cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c326.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.641373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb79…2a81backed Yes10c298.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes33c295.62$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No67c292.36$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4921651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb7…93c7backed No67c291.21$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.17950.6%40 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0070…0414backed No68c290.8$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.994654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbecd…9df4backed Yes39c250.05$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92e1…cec0backed Yes6c248.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e93…0078backed Yes8c235.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.822218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-62.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db5…fa3ebacked Yes8c222.89$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+59.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa705…8998backed No64c207.88$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.861338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e5…a98cbacked Yes43c200.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeec…2776backed Yes31c195.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…20f7backed No57c193.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4210067%67 W · 33 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cef…53f7backed Yes52c186.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82cb…f46dbacked No44c177.19$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes8c176$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9331523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2efb…fa14backed No44c163.42$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+79.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad6…34bfbacked Yes17c154.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a10…6f51backed No67c144.64$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d4…f1f5backed No74c125.91$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.286446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02bb…cb45backed Yes41c120$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.22552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52d…3728backed No59c116.49$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.762254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd51b…90a8backed Yes9c115.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No70c115.61$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5116537.6%62 W · 103 L-21.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d64…527ebacked Yes57c110.98$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.261145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes27c110.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4313624.3%33 W · 103 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf199…ab80backed Yes11c103.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.691723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e4d…3964backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+316.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…7b2abacked Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be2…8fa3backed No59c98.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.293271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc15…cc49backed No77c98.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.641361.5%8 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1dd…a272backed Yes45c96.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6211726.5%31 W · 86 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ff6…4cb5backed Yes39c87.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa426…fa0dbacked No59c82.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.395100%5 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+144.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b9b…7e7cbacked No46c81.73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.535444.4%24 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes16c75.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5122…0af1backed Yes43c72.81$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d0…d5cebacked Yes42c70.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-59%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd050…be7abacked Yes34c64.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.249940.4%40 W · 59 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd08c…8a89backed No74c51.79$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedc…225fbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick29cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f92…db0dbacked Yes38c48.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.471612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No57c48.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.855757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9112…7797backed Yes44c48.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.334553.3%24 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f00…4654backed Yes31c43.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…de63backed No68c43.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+9.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1736…74ddbacked No62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae05…f5d1backed Yes39c38.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.164126.8%11 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x256e…1867backed No64c38.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x06e3…f08fbacked No68c35.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x227d…1a26backed No61c31.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.439063.3%57 W · 33 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5784…0830backed No65c29.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.495347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe26a…bdfabacked No57c25.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7273…354ebacked Yes57c25.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ca…1f29backed No48c24.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a6…0e2dbacked No62c23.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.877565.3%49 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe41e…fe84backed No79c19.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.