Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1876369af3fc5717207cf615d21875748108e8ee3e5da4c131d506074521b69b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $154,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a5…ee3dbacked Yes | 72c | 41,810$30,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,777.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 28c | 15,652$4,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,404.93 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8283…0ca8backed No | 1c | 10,926$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…0988backed No | 32c | 6,776$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,143.63 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 40c | 2,757$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.46 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…abe5backed Yes | 66c | 2,599$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 29c | 1,704$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.32 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 77c | 1,572$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.29 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 25c | 1,504$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.64 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 29c | 1,301$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.84 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 1,200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294a…2c71backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…6cd2backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 28c | 779.26$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.51 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…0414backed No | 23c | 697.12$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b6cbbacked No | 30c | 506.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 72c | 504.81$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed No | 6c | 499.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 30c | 403.64$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 358.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…89b7backed No | 35c | 349.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed No | 33c | 349.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 46c | 344.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 20cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked No | 8c | 307.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…45acbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked No | 4c | 299.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 26c | 298.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed No | 39c | 297.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 5c | 293.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 38c | 272.23$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…63dbbacked No | 47c | 251.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…ad54backed No | 33c | 240.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed No | 37c | 213.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…df28backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 57c | 170.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 59c | 164.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e44…2af6backed Yes | 65c | 163.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fe…fea5backed Yes | 72c | 128.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 61c | 104.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 68c | 101.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed No | 44c | 96.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…f1f5backed Yes | 74c | 93.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…4dd7backed No | 28c | 85.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed No | 35c | 69.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked No | 28c | 69.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 42c | 69.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c68fbacked Yes | 63c | 64.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 77c | 62.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 31c | 61.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 59.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…e32abacked Yes | 71c | 55.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…0078backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…1624backed No | 28c | 54.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…a5a7backed Yes | 64c | 53.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…2ec9backed No | 37c | 52.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked Yes | 64c | 50.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…b78ebacked Yes | 80c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…860ebacked No | 47c | 47.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b2…ed13backed Yes | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08c…8a89backed No | 28c | 43.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd407…eb96backed No | 34c | 41.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…f08fbacked Yes | 64c | 38.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…b450backed Yes | 68c | 35.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…878ebacked No | 34c | 33.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…e875backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…5135backed Yes | 62c | 29.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 75c | 29.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa353…2e4cbacked No | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…9715backed No | 37c | 29.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…bd6bbacked No | 39c | 27.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed Yes | 72c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…6894backed No | 46c | 25.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…9d34backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a91…2e2dbacked Yes | 61c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Yes | 66c | 19.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Yes | 70c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -69%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 March 16-22?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 16-22?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 March 16-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.