Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08c9f95ab575ec1ca7a1714a035629ec21370878d3a9c9191cac1cd795cafa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 17c | 877.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 613.75$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.97 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 8c | 514.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83b…5001backed No | 61c | 350.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 313.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 26c | 235.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…2ac4backed No | 52c | 209.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 196.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…09babacked Yes | 57c | 164.53$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 36c | 160.86$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f6…af9dbacked Yes | 71c | 141.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 45c | 134.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 128.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 29c | 119.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 115.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…ad85backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…aecfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…4732backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 45c | 95.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 60c | 94.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 47c | 93.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 85.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…8a0abacked Yes | 59c | 84.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…519fbacked No | 19c | 83.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 43c | 78.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 75c | 76.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 43c | 75.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49e…4625backed Yes | 53c | 56.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 49c | 55.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 56c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 29c | 47.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 68c | 45.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…ab26backed Yes | 51c | 41.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe045…3f72backed Yes | 37c | 40.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…8f87backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 38.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…be2dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…fa3cbacked Yes | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 55c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 42c | 33.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…fcd4backed Yes | 58c | 32.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 48c | 31.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 45c | 27.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 58c | 27.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 24.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 75c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -2°C on January 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -3°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -5°C on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -6°C or below on January 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C or higher on January 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.