Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c0bde071ce7e54bc015903683e086afce8bdfbb4bd756191c90943b42e4072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 2,935$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed No | 75c | 1,100$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed Yes | 25c | 1,100$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 15c | 627.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.36 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 12c | 592.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 573.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 5c | 429.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…5f0dbacked No | 74c | 410.94$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 324.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 306.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 294$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 269.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 260.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 229.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 213.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…24fbbacked Yes | 28c | 177.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…c036backed Yes | 30c | 166.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 23c | 165.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 31c | 125.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 108.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 15c | 107.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 18c | 101.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 100.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 88.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 26c | 83.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 82.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 63.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 55.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 21c | 52.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 78c | 51.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1417…38afbacked No | 77c | 37.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 80c | 26.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f9…a6ecbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…ec7dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 72c | 17.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 14.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.