Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a44d751ac7d0e3f6eff6597612a0dd4edb7df2e9a60718011ea5446dc38548d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 66c | 9,350$6,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,171 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 34c | 9,350$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,171 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,240$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,915$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6b…6c65backed No | 1c | 1,440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 1,345$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…5f0dbacked Yes | 39c | 651.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 5c | 633.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dc14backed Yes | 48c | 620.71$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.56 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +137%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 80c | 510.68$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 65c | 409.32$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.41 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 45c | 337.14$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 18c | 313$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 284.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6953…108dbacked No | 37c | 267.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc083…5b64backed Yes | 15c | 259.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +240%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 241.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.19 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 39c | 206.63$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed No | 75c | 171.59$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 169.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed No | 67c | 150.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 46c | 143.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 80c | 138.16$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 131.52$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 73c | 128.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 36c | 125.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 33c | 119.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…4be8backed No | 49c | 118.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 48c | 110.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked Yes | 16c | 97.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 25c | 95.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…871cbacked Yes | 46c | 82.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…7b7cbacked Yes | 25c | 80.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 79.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 74.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1c…3853backed Yes | 41c | 72.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 38c | 65.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed No | 80c | 63.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 61.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 20c | 60.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 20c | 55.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe6…a9e6backed Yes | 24c | 55.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…3152backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 73.3%88 W · 32 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 25c | 41.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…6b9fbacked Yes | 35c | 39.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 41c | 36.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 33.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…a03abacked Yes | 44c | 27.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…dc0cbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or below on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C or higher on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.